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Practical Training in Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment
Two-Day Residential Course
Weds 6th Dec to Thurs 7th Dec 2006
Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment (PERA) is an increasingly popular tool for assessing the risks of chemicals and other stressors on environmental receptors.
Advantages of PERA over traditional deterministic methods are:
- Better understanding of risk distributions.
- Allows separation of uncertainty from variability.
- Provides more integrated options for sensitivity analyses.
- Helps to focus further work more accurately onto important uncertain and sensitive parameters.
- Encourages correct formulation and conceptualisation of the risk problem.
- Provides an answer to the question “How likely are the outcomes?”
This practical two-day residential course uses the market-leading spreadsheet package Crystal Ball® to provide training in PERA. The course is led by Dr Mark Crane , a Director of Watts & Crane Associates, who has taught and published widely on probabilistic risk assessment, and performed PERAs for regulatory and business clients.
Sudbury House Hotel in the market town of Faringdon, Oxfordshire, is the venue for the course. Participants bring their own laptops and will be provided with a free copy of Crystal Ball® Professional Edition for a six-week trial period, starting two weeks before the course. Teaching is based around practical environmental case studies, with participants learning through hands-on development of probabilistic models. The only prerequisite for participants is a working knowledge of Excel spreadsheets.
By the end of the course participants will know:
- The strengths, limitations, regulatory drivers and available methods for PERA.
- How to construct, run and interpret a spreadsheet risk model in Crystal Ball® Professional Edition.
- How to account for correlations and separate uncertain from variable parameters in a risk analysis.
- How to use sensitivity analysis to analyse the most influential parameters in a model.
- How best to present PERA outputs graphically and statistically.
- How to optimise decisions under uncertainty to provide the most cost-effective solutions.
- How to perform a probabilistic time series forecast.
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Course charges
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PERA using Crystal Ball® (2-day course)
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£420.00
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Full accommodation at Sudbury House Hotel (includes refreshments, three-course carvery lunches on both days, three-course dinner first evening, overnight accomodation in en suite room, and full english breakfast on day 2)
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£150.00
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Total (excl. VAT)
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£570.00
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For more information or to book a place on the course please
CONTACT US.
SEE FULL TWO-DAY AGENDA HERE
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